Date : Friday 13th October 2017 at 3:00
Race : Challenge Stakes
Type : Flat – Group 2 (3yo+)
Course : Newmarket
Distance : 7f (Rowley)
Going : Good
This race was established in 1878 and called the First Great Challenge Stakes. Contested over 6 furlongs and open to horses aged 2yo or older, the distance was changed to 7 furlongs in 1977 and closed to 2yo’s in 1985. It was promoted to Group 2 status in 1987. Lester Piggott rode 7 winners and the most successful trainer is Barry Hills with 6 winners.
In the last 13 runnings of this race;
4 favourites have won.
4 winners were the top rated horse.
5 winners had already won a Group 1 or Group 2 race.
3 winners had already won a Group 2 race in the same season.
13 winners had already won over the same distance.
5 winners had already won at the course.
8 winners had already won on the going.
20/1 has been the highest winning SP.
13/8 has been the lowest winning SP.
|Performance of the last 10 Favourites (prior to this race)
|1 the other Joint Favourites was 5th 2 the other Joint Favourite was 5th
There are 3 trends that I have found which are shown below with specific statistics* for Group 2 races that I have analysed…
|1 : All of the previous 13 winners were aged 3yo-5yo.|
|1 : in 25 races this trend has been followed by 19 winners (76%)|
|1 : in 7 races over the distance, the winner followed this trend on 6 occasions (87%)|
|2 : 11 of the previous 13 winners had an Official Rating of 110 or higher.|
|2 : in 95 races this trend has been followed by 81 winners (85%)|
|2 : in 15 races over the distance, the winner followed this trend on 13 occasions (87%)|
|3 : All of the previous 13 winners had already won a race over the same distance.|
|3 : in 21 races this trend has been followed by 16 winners (76%)|
|3 : in 3 races over the distance, the winner followed this trend on 3 occasions (100%)|
|In 27 Group 2 races analysed at Newmarket;|
|The winner followed all of the trends on 19 occasion (70%).|
|*as at October 9th 2017|
Final Declarations :
Good luck !
1. Limato 6/4F
2. Massaat 11/2
3. Gordon Lord Byron 66/1