Challenge Stakes

NewmarketDate : Friday 13th October 2017 at 3:00
Race : Challenge Stakes
Type : Flat – Group 2 (3yo+)
Course : Newmarket
Distance : 7f (Rowley)
Going : Good

This race was established in 1878 and called the First Great Challenge Stakes. Contested over 6 furlongs and open to horses aged 2yo or older, the distance was changed to 7 furlongs in 1977 and closed to 2yo’s in 1985. It was promoted to Group 2 status in 1987. Lester Piggott rode 7 winners and the most successful trainer is Barry Hills with 6 winners.

In the last 13 runnings of this race;
4 favourites have won.
4 winners were the top rated horse.
5 winners had already won a Group 1 or Group 2 race.
3 winners had already won a Group 2 race in the same season.
13 winners had already won over the same distance.
5 winners had already won at the course.
8 winners had already won on the going.
20/1 has been the highest winning SP.
13/8 has been the lowest winning SP.

Performance of the last 10 Favourites (prior to this race)
Year 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
Posn 5th 5th 3rd Won 4th Won 4th 5th Won
15th
SP 100/30 4/1 7/2J1 3/1 4/1J2 13/8 6/4 7/2 9/2 11/4
Ran 12 10 13 9 11 8 14 9 15 15
1 the other Joint Favourites was 5th 2 the other Joint Favourite was 5th

There are 3 trends that I have found which are shown below with specific statistics* for Group 2 races that I have analysed…

1 : All of the previous 13 winners were aged 3yo-5yo.
1 : in 25 races this trend has been followed by 19 winners (76%)
1 : in 7 races over the distance, the winner followed this trend on 6 occasions (87%)
2 : 11 of the previous 13 winners had an Official Rating of 110 or higher.
2 : in 95 races this trend has been followed by 81 winners (85%)
2 : in 15 races over the distance, the winner followed this trend on 13 occasions (87%)
3 : All of the previous 13 winners had already won a race over the same distance.
3 : in 21 races this trend has been followed by 16 winners (76%)
3 : in 3 races over the distance, the winner followed this trend on 3 occasions (100%)
In 27 Group 2 races analysed at Newmarket;
The winner followed all of the trends on 19 occasion (70%).
*as at October 9th 2017

Final Declarations :

Good luck !

Result
1. Limato 6/4F
2. Massaat 11/2
3. Gordon Lord Byron 66/1
11 ran