Aston Park Stakes

Date : Saturday 20th May 2017 at 1:50
Race : Aston Park Stakes
Type : Flat – Group 3 (4yo+)
Course : Newbury
Distance : 1m 4f 5y
Going : Soft

This was a Listed race and originally run over 1m 5½f, then in 2016 it was promoted to Group status and the distance changed to 1m 4f.

In the last 13 runnings of this race;
2 favourites have won.
2 top rated horses have won.
2 unrated horses have won.
No winners had already won a race at the same level or better.
8 winners had already won over the same distance.
2 winners had previously won at the course.
5 winners had already won on the going.
14/1 has been the highest winning SP.
8/13 has been the lowest winning SP.

Performance of the last 10 Favourites (prior to this race)
Year 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
Posn 4th Won 7th 4th 4th 2nd 2nd 2nd 2nd
2nd
SP 4/6 8/13 15/8 9/4 9/5 6/4 5/2 9/4 11/10 1/2
Ran 6 8 7 7 6 6 9 8 5 5

There are 2 trends that I have found which are shown below with specific statistics* for Group 3 races that I have analysed…

1: 11 of the previous 13 winners had an SP in the top 3 of the betting.
1 : in 33 races this trend has been followed by 25 winners (76%)
1 : in 7 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 4 winners (57%)
2: 12 of the previous 13 winners had an Official Rating of 105 or higher.
2 : in 129 races this trend has been followed by 100 winners (78%)
2 : in 19 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 15 winners (79%)
In 14 Group 3 races analysed at Newbury;
The winner followed all of the trends on 6 occasions (43%).
*as at May 19th 2017

Final Declarations :

Richie’s Comments
This seems like a wide open race, but my eye is drawn towards Hawkbill, a proven Group 1 horse (last year’s Eclipse winner) who on Soft going has finished 1st/1st/3rd. He drops down 2 levels to Group 3 and if he does well here, then the stable will be looking closely at the handfuls of Group 1 entries he has for upcoming races.

Good luck !!

Result
1. Hawkbill 3/1F
2. My Dream Boat 4/1
3.  Midterm 7/2
6 ran