Date : Saturday 20th May 2017 at 1:50
Race : Aston Park Stakes
Type : Flat – Group 3 (4yo+)
Course : Newbury
Distance : 1m 4f 5y
Going : Soft
This was a Listed race and originally run over 1m 5½f, then in 2016 it was promoted to Group status and the distance changed to 1m 4f.
In the last 13 runnings of this race;
2 favourites have won.
2 top rated horses have won.
2 unrated horses have won.
No winners had already won a race at the same level or better.
8 winners had already won over the same distance.
2 winners had previously won at the course.
5 winners had already won on the going.
14/1 has been the highest winning SP.
8/13 has been the lowest winning SP.
|Performance of the last 10 Favourites (prior to this race)
There are 2 trends that I have found which are shown below with specific statistics* for Group 3 races that I have analysed…
|1: 11 of the previous 13 winners had an SP in the top 3 of the betting.|
|1 : in 33 races this trend has been followed by 25 winners (76%)|
|1 : in 7 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 4 winners (57%)|
|2: 12 of the previous 13 winners had an Official Rating of 105 or higher.|
|2 : in 129 races this trend has been followed by 100 winners (78%)|
|2 : in 19 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 15 winners (79%)
|In 14 Group 3 races analysed at Newbury;|
|The winner followed all of the trends on 6 occasions (43%).|
|*as at May 19th 2017|
Final Declarations :
|This seems like a wide open race, but my eye is drawn towards Hawkbill, a proven Group 1 horse (last year’s Eclipse winner) who on Soft going has finished 1st/1st/3rd. He drops down 2 levels to Group 3 and if he does well here, then the stable will be looking closely at the handfuls of Group 1 entries he has for upcoming races.
Good luck !!
1. Hawkbill 3/1F
2. My Dream Boat 4/1
3. Midterm 7/2