Aston Park Stakes

Date : Saturday 19th May 2018 at 2:25
Race : Aston Park Stakes
Type : Flat – Group 3 (4yo+)
Course : Newbury
Distance : 1m 4f 5y
Going : Good to Firm

This was a Listed race and originally run over 1m 5½f, then in 2016 it was promoted to Group status and the distance changed to 1m 4f.

In the last 14 runnings of this race;
3 favourites have won.
3 top rated horses have won.
2 unrated horses have won (last in 2006).
No winners had already won a race at the same level or better.
8 winners had already won over the same distance.
2 winners had previously won at the course.
6 winners had already won on the going.
14/1 has been the highest winning SP.
8/13 has been the lowest winning SP.

Performance of the last 10 Favourites (prior to this race)
Year 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
Posn Won 4th Won 7th 4th 4th 2nd 2nd 2nd 2nd
SP 3/1 4/6 8/13 15/8 9/4 9/5 6/4 5/2 9/4 11/10
Ran 6 6 8 7 7 6 6 9 8 5

There are 2 trends that I have found which are shown below with specific statistics* for Group 3 races that I have analysed…

1: 12 of the previous 14 winners had an SP in the top 3 of the betting.
1 : in 49 races this trend has been followed by 37 winners (76%)
1 : in 11 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 8 winners (73%)
2: 10 of the previous 11 winners had an Official Rating of 105 or higher.
2 : in 171 races this trend has been followed by 137 winners (80%)
2 : in 21 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 17 winners (81%)
In 27 Group 3 races analysed at Newbury;
The winner followed all of the trends on 13 occasions (48%).
*as at May 12th 2018

Final Declarations :

Richie’s Ratings;
Below are my ratings for all runners declared in this race. They are based on the trends as well as past performances of the horse. These are unproven and they are intended for guidance only.
1. Second Step 10.2068 2. Crystal Ocean 9.6157 3. Scarlet Dragon 8.1375

Good luck !!

Result
1. Crystal Ocean 2/5F
2. Second Step 5/1
3. Scarlet Dragon 20/1
5 ran