Chester Vase

Date : Thursday 11th May 2017 at 3:35
Race : Chester Vase
Type : Flat – Group 3 (3yo Colts & Geldings)
Course : Chester
Distance : 1m 4f 63y
Going : Good

Established in 1907 and open to both 3yo’s and 4yo’s. In 1959 the distance was reduced by a furlong to 1m 4f and closed to 4yo’s. Horses doing well here often go on to compete in the Derby.

In the last 13 runnings of this race;
7 favourites have won.
3 top rated horses have won.
4 unrated horses have won.
1 winner had already won at this level or better.
No winners had already won over the same distance.
No winners had previously won at the course.
7 winners had already won on the going.
25/1 has been the highest winning SP.
4/11 has been the lowest winning SP.

Performance of the last 10 Favourites (prior to this race)
Year 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2007
Posn Won Won Won Won 4th 2nd 6th 2nd Won
Won won
SP 4/11 7/4 3/1 10/11 6/4 6/4 9/4 13/8 11/8 4/9 4/9
Ran 6 6 8 4 5 5 7 8 8 4 4

There are 3 trends that I have found which are shown below with specific statistics* for Group 3 races that I have analysed…

1: All of the previous 13 winners raced from stalls 1-5.
1 : in 30 races this trend has been followed by 19 winners (63%)
1 : in 2 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 2 winners (100%)
2: All of the previous 13 winners had finished in the first 4 places last time out.
2 : in 82 races this trend has been followed by 52 winners (63%)
2 : in 2 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 2 winners (100%)
3: All of the previous 10 winners had won a race before.
3 : in 11 races this trend has been followed by 11 winners (100%)
3 : in 1 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 1 winner (100%)
In 6 Group 3 races analysed at Chester;
The winner followed all of the trends on 5 occasions (88%).
*as at May 9th 2017

Final Declarations :

Richie’s Notes;
This race seems to be officially given a distance of 1m 4½f and so far I have noted 6 trends over that distance before the races and all 6 have subsequently been followed by the winner. Hopefully this means that we can pick confidently from the list of 4 that follow all 3 trends. My eye is drawn towards Venice Beach who won last time out over 1m 4f and at Tipperary, a course very similar to Chester being a tight right handed circuit. He should go off as favourite and have already won on Good going. I am going to have a little punt on Venice Beach.

Good luck !

Result
1. Venice Beach 5/2
2. Wings Of Eagles 8/1
3. The Anvil 7/1
8 ran