Date : Wednesday 9th May 2018 at 3:35
Race : Chester Vase
Type : Flat – Group 3 (3yo Colts & Geldings)
Course : Chester
Distance : 1m 4f 63y
Going : Good
Established in 1907 and open to both 3yo’s and 4yo’s. In 1959 the distance was reduced by a furlong to 1m 4f and closed to 4yo’s. Horses doing well here often go on to compete in the Derby.
In the last 14 runnings of this race;
8 favourites have won.
3 top rated horses have won.
5 unrated horses have won.
1 winner had already won at this level or better.
1 winner had already won over the same distance.
No winners had previously won at the course.
8 winners had already won on the going.
25/1 has been the highest winning SP.
4/11 has been the lowest winning SP.
|Performance of the last 10 Favourites (prior to this race)
There are 3 trends that I have found which are shown below with specific statistics* for Group 3 races that I have analysed…
|1: All of the previous 14 winners raced from stalls 1-5.|
|1 : in 40 races this trend has been followed by 26 winners (65%)|
|1 : in 3 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 3 winners (100%)|
|2: All of the previous 14 winners had finished in the first 4 places last time out.|
|2 : in 110 races this trend has been followed by 74 winners (67%)|
|2 : in 3 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 3 winners (100%)
|3: All of the previous 11 winners had won a race before.|
|3 : in 14 races this trend has been followed by 14 winners (100%)|
|3 : in 2 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 2 winners (100%)|
|In 9 Group 3 races analysed at Chester;|
|The winner followed all of the trends on 8 occasions (89%).|
|*as at May 7th 2018|
Final Declarations :
|Below are my ratings for all runners declared in this race. They are based on the trends as well as past performances of the horse. These are unproven and they are intended for guidance only.|
|1. Proschema 4.4227||2. Perfect Illusion 4.1429||3. Ispolini 4.0000|
Good luck !
1. Young Rascal 100/30
2. Dee Ex Bee 12/1
3. Hunting Horn 3/1F