Date : Thursday 11th May 2017 at 3:35
Race : Chester Vase
Type : Flat – Group 3 (3yo Colts & Geldings)
Course : Chester
Distance : 1m 4f 63y
Going : Good
Established in 1907 and open to both 3yo’s and 4yo’s. In 1959 the distance was reduced by a furlong to 1m 4f and closed to 4yo’s. Horses doing well here often go on to compete in the Derby.
In the last 13 runnings of this race;
7 favourites have won.
3 top rated horses have won.
4 unrated horses have won.
1 winner had already won at this level or better.
No winners had already won over the same distance.
No winners had previously won at the course.
7 winners had already won on the going.
25/1 has been the highest winning SP.
4/11 has been the lowest winning SP.
|Performance of the last 10 Favourites (prior to this race)
There are 3 trends that I have found which are shown below with specific statistics* for Group 3 races that I have analysed…
|1: All of the previous 13 winners raced from stalls 1-5.|
|1 : in 30 races this trend has been followed by 19 winners (63%)|
|1 : in 2 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 2 winners (100%)|
|2: All of the previous 13 winners had finished in the first 4 places last time out.|
|2 : in 82 races this trend has been followed by 52 winners (63%)|
|2 : in 2 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 2 winners (100%)
|3: All of the previous 10 winners had won a race before.|
|3 : in 11 races this trend has been followed by 11 winners (100%)|
|3 : in 1 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 1 winner (100%)|
|In 6 Group 3 races analysed at Chester;|
|The winner followed all of the trends on 5 occasions (88%).|
|*as at May 9th 2017|
Final Declarations :
|This race seems to be officially given a distance of 1m 4½f and so far I have noted 6 trends over that distance before the races and all 6 have subsequently been followed by the winner. Hopefully this means that we can pick confidently from the list of 4 that follow all 3 trends. My eye is drawn towards Venice Beach who won last time out over 1m 4f and at Tipperary, a course very similar to Chester being a tight right handed circuit. He should go off as favourite and have already won on Good going. I am going to have a little punt on Venice Beach.
Good luck !
1. Venice Beach 5/2
2. Wings Of Eagles 8/1
3. The Anvil 7/1