Cumberland Lodge Stakes

Date : Saturday 7th October 2017 at 2:25
Race : Cumberland Lodge Stakes
Type : Flat – Group 3 (3yo+)
Course : Ascot
Distance : 1m 3f 211y
Going : Good to Soft

This race is named after Cumberland Lodge, a location used successfully in the 18th century as a stud farm and was the birthplace of the legendary Eclipse. Established in 1951 as a race over 2 miles, the distance was shortened to 1 mile 4 furlongs a year later in 1952. Both Lester Piggott adn Pat Edderey rode 7 winners and Marcus Tregoning has trained 6 winners.

In the last 13 runnings of this race;
6 favourites have won, 2 were joint favourite.
3 winners were the top rated horse.
6 winners had already won at the same level or better.
9 winners had already won over the same distance.
4 winners had already won at the course.
5 winners had already won on the going.
5/1 has been the highest winning SP.
5/6 has been the lowest winning SP.

Performance of the last 10 Favourites (prior to this race)
Year 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006
Posn 2nd Won 3rd 3rd Won 2nd Won Won Won
3rd 2nd
SP 7/2 7/2J1 6/5 3/1J2 9/4J3 9/4 5/6 7/2 11/10 6/4 11/4
Ran 9 2014 5 7 6 7 6 12 5 8 8
1 the other Joint Favourites was 3rd 2 the other Joint Favourite was 5th 3 the other Joint Favourite was 3rd

There are 4 trends that I have found which are shown below with specific statistics* for Group 3 races that I have analysed…

1 : 12 of the previous 13 winners were aged 3yo-5yo.
1 : in 42 races this trend has been followed by 31 winners (74%)
1 : in 6 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 4 winners (67%)
2 : 12 of the previous 13 winners had an SP in the top 3 of the betting.
2 : in 42 races this trend has been followed by 32 winners (76%)
2 : in 9 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 6 winners (67%)
3 : 9 of the previous 10 winners had an Official Rating of 106 or higher.
3 : in 157 races this trend has been followed by 125 winners (80%)
3 : in 22 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 18 winners (82%)
4 : 12 of the previous 13 winners had finished in the first 4 places last time out.
4 : in 102 races this trend has been followed by 69 winners (68%)
4 : in 13 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 9 winners (75%)
In 20 Group 3 races analysed at Ascot;
The winner followed all of the trends on 12 occasion (60%).
*as at October 2nd 2017

Final Declarations :

Good luck !

Result
1. Danehill Kodiac 8/1
2. Waldgeist 4/7F
3. Secret Number 5/1
9 ran