Date : Saturday 7th October 2017 at 2:25
Race : Cumberland Lodge Stakes
Type : Flat – Group 3 (3yo+)
Course : Ascot
Distance : 1m 3f 211y
Going : Good to Soft
This race is named after Cumberland Lodge, a location used successfully in the 18th century as a stud farm and was the birthplace of the legendary Eclipse. Established in 1951 as a race over 2 miles, the distance was shortened to 1 mile 4 furlongs a year later in 1952. Both Lester Piggott adn Pat Edderey rode 7 winners and Marcus Tregoning has trained 6 winners.
In the last 13 runnings of this race;
6 favourites have won, 2 were joint favourite.
3 winners were the top rated horse.
6 winners had already won at the same level or better.
9 winners had already won over the same distance.
4 winners had already won at the course.
5 winners had already won on the going.
5/1 has been the highest winning SP.
5/6 has been the lowest winning SP.
|Performance of the last 10 Favourites (prior to this race)
|1 the other Joint Favourites was 3rd 2 the other Joint Favourite was 5th 3 the other Joint Favourite was 3rd
There are 4 trends that I have found which are shown below with specific statistics* for Group 3 races that I have analysed…
|1 : 12 of the previous 13 winners were aged 3yo-5yo.|
|1 : in 42 races this trend has been followed by 31 winners (74%)|
|1 : in 6 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 4 winners (67%)|
|2 : 12 of the previous 13 winners had an SP in the top 3 of the betting.|
|2 : in 42 races this trend has been followed by 32 winners (76%)|
|2 : in 9 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 6 winners (67%)|
|3 : 9 of the previous 10 winners had an Official Rating of 106 or higher.|
|3 : in 157 races this trend has been followed by 125 winners (80%)|
|3 : in 22 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 18 winners (82%)|
|4 : 12 of the previous 13 winners had finished in the first 4 places last time out.|
|4 : in 102 races this trend has been followed by 69 winners (68%)
|4 : in 13 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 9 winners (75%)|
|In 20 Group 3 races analysed at Ascot;|
|The winner followed all of the trends on 12 occasion (60%).|
|*as at October 2nd 2017|
Final Declarations :
Good luck !
1. Danehill Kodiac 8/1
2. Waldgeist 4/7F
3. Secret Number 5/1