Diomed Stakes

EpsomDate : Saturday 2nd June 2018 at 3:10
Race : Diomed Stakes
Type : Flat – Group 3 (3yo+)
Course : Epsom Downs
Distance : 1m 114y
Going : Good

First run in 1971 this is a race named after the winner of the first Derby back in 1780.

In the last 24 runnings of this race;
5 favourites have won, 2 were joint favourites.
2 top rated horses have won.
5 unrated horses have won (last time in 1998).
9 winners had already won over the same distance.
8 winners had previously won at the course.
20 winners had already won on the going.
25/1 has been the highest winning SP.
5/4 has been the lowest winning SP.

Performance of the last 10 Favourites (prior to this race)
Year 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
Posn 5th Won Won 2nd Won 4th 7th 7th 2nd 2nd
SP 100/30 5/2 7/4 9/4 3/1J1 5/6 15/8 11/4 6/4 100/30
Ran 7 7 7 7 7 6 8 9 8 8
1 the other Joint Favourite was 4th.

There are 3 trends that I have found which are shown below with specific statistics* for Group 3 races that I have analysed…

1: 18 of the previous 19 winners had an Official Rating of 102 or higher.
1 : in 174 races this trend has been followed by 140 winners (80%)
1 : in 6 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 62 winners (100%)
2: 21 of the previous 24 winners had finished in the first 4 places last time out.
2 : in 112 races this trend has been followed by 75 winners (67%)
2 : in 5 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 3 winners (60%)
3: 14 of the previous 15 winners had already won a race with an Offical Rating of 102 or higher.
3 : in 21 races this trend has been followed by 11 winners (52%)
3 : in 4 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 4 winners (100%)
In 6 Group 3 races analysed at Epsom Downs;
The winner followed all of the trends on 3 occasions (50%).
*as at May 27th 20178

Final Declarations :

Richie’s Ratings;
Below are my ratings for all runners declared in this race. They are based on the trends as well as past performances of the horse. These are unproven and they are intended for guidance only.
1. Century Dream 8.4151 2. Arod 8.2082 3. Breton Rock 6.4880

Good luck !!

Result
1. Century Dream 11/4F
2. Gabrial 11/2
3. True Valour 6/1
7 ran