Date : Thursday 25th May 2017 at 7:05
Race : Henry II Stakes
Type : Flat – Group 3 (4yo+)
Course : Sandown Park
Distance : 2m 78y
Going : Good to Firm
A race named after King Henry II who founded the Sandon Priory at Sandown Park during his reign (1154-1189) and possibly most known for it’s 3 time winner Persian Punch. Successful runners here usually go on to compete in the Ascot Gold Cup.
In the last 12 runnings of this race;
3 favourites have won.
4 top rated horses have won.
1 unrated horse has won (in 2005).
6 winners had already won a race at the same level or better.
6 winners had already won over the same distance.
1 winner had previously won at the course.
8 winners had already won on the going.
20/1 has been the highest winning SP.
6/4 has been the lowest winning SP.
|Performance of the last 10 Favourites (prior to this race)
|1 the other Joint Favourite was 5th.
There are 2 trends that I have found which are shown below with specific statistics* for Group 3 races that I have analysed…
|1: 7 of the previous 8 winners had an SP in the top 3 of the betting.|
|1 : in 34 races this trend has been followed by 26 winners (76%)|
|1 : in 1 race over the distance, this trend has been followed by 1 winner (100%)|
|2: 10 of the previous 11 winners had an Offical Rating of 106 or higher.|
|2 : in 130 races this trend has been followed by 101 winners (78%)|
|2 : in 7 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 6 winners (86%)
|In 16 Group 3 races analysed at Sandown Park;|
|The winner followed all of the trends on 10 occasions (63%).|
|*as at May 22nd 2017|
Final Declarations :
|This may appear to be a one horse race, but I am going to take the favourite Big Orange on and here is the reason why. I know that Quest For More has to give 7lbs away but he has shown over the longer distances that he is a battler and always gives a good account of himself. With 2 places givng ¼ odds on a place, backing him at 13/2 and getting a place is almost as good as backing Big Orange at 5/4 to win. Quest For Fame has finished either 1st or 2nd in 8 races of 2 miles or more, he has also finshed in the first 3 places 11 times out of 12 on Good going. Both horses have been running in good company recently and can only see these 2 in the mix. So for me, a small each way bet on Quest For More.
Good luck !!
1. Big Orange 4/5F
2. Higher Power 7/1
3. She Is No Lady 17/2