Henry II Stakes

SandownDate : Thursday 25th May 2017 at 7:05
Race : Henry II Stakes
Type : Flat – Group 3 (4yo+)
Course : Sandown Park
Distance : 2m 78y
Going : Good to Firm

A race named after King Henry II who founded the Sandon Priory at Sandown Park during his reign (1154-1189) and possibly most known for it’s 3 time winner Persian Punch. Successful runners here usually go on to compete in the Ascot Gold Cup.

In the last 12 runnings of this race;
3 favourites have won.
4 top rated horses have won.
1 unrated horse has won (in 2005).
6 winners had already won a race at the same level or better.
6 winners had already won over the same distance.
1 winner had previously won at the course.
8 winners had already won on the going.
20/1 has been the highest winning SP.
6/4 has been the lowest winning SP.

Performance of the last 10 Favourites (prior to this race)
Year 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
Posn 3rd Won Won 4th Won 3rd 3rd 2nd 3rd
5th
SP 4/7 6/4 2/1 4/1J1 5/4 6/4 2/1 1/2 Evens 5/2
Ran 4 7 11 10 10 8 8 7 8 7
1 the other Joint Favourite was 5th.

There are 2 trends that I have found which are shown below with specific statistics* for Group 3 races that I have analysed…

1: 7 of the previous 8 winners had an SP in the top 3 of the betting.
1 : in 34 races this trend has been followed by 26 winners (76%)
1 : in 1 race over the distance, this trend has been followed by 1 winner (100%)
2: 10 of the previous 11 winners had an Offical Rating of 106 or higher.
2 : in 130 races this trend has been followed by 101 winners (78%)
2 : in 7 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 6 winners (86%)
In 16 Group 3 races analysed at Sandown Park;
The winner followed all of the trends on 10 occasions (63%).
*as at May 22nd 2017

Final Declarations :

Richie’s Comments
This may appear to be a one horse race, but I am going to take the favourite Big Orange on and here is the reason why. I know that Quest For More has to give 7lbs away but he has shown over the longer distances that he is a battler and always gives a good account of himself.  With 2 places givng ¼ odds on a place, backing him at 13/2 and getting a place is almost as good as backing Big Orange at 5/4 to win. Quest For Fame has finished either 1st or 2nd in 8 races of 2 miles or more, he has also finshed in the first 3 places 11 times out of 12 on Good going. Both horses have been running in good company recently and can only see these 2 in the mix. So for me, a small each way bet on Quest For More.

Good luck !!

Result
1. Big Orange 4/5F
2. Higher Power 7/1
3. She Is No Lady 17/2
7 ran