John of Gaunt Stakes

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Date : Saturday 9th June 2017 at 4:00
Race : John Of Gaunt Stakes
Type : Flat – Group 3 (4yo+)
Course : Haydock Park
Distance : 7f 37y
Going : Good to Firm

Also currently known as the Timeform Jury Stakes, it is named after John Of Gaunt who was the Duke of Lancaster in the 14th Century.

In the last 14 runnings of this race;
4 favourites have won, 1 was joint favourite.
3 top rated horses have won.
3 winners had already won at the same level or better.
12 winners had already won over the same distance.
3 winners had previously won at the course.
7 winners had already won on the going.
33/1 has been the highest winning SP.
10/11 has been the lowest winning SP.

Performance of the last 10 Favourites (prior to this race)
Year 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
Posn 5th Won 7th 4th 2nd 4th 2nd Won Won Won
SP 11/4 9/4 4/1 11/4 5/2 10/11 7/4 2/1J1 7/4 10/11
Ran 8 9 13 9 9 7 9 9 10 8
1 the other Joint Favourite was 4th.

There are 2 trends that I have found which are shown below with specific statistics* for Group 3 races that I have analysed…

1 : 9 of the previous 11 winners raced from stalls 1-3.
1 : in 42 races this trend has been followed by 28 winners (67%)
1 : in 12 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 8 winners (67%)
2 : All of the previous 14 winners had an Offical Rating of 107 or higher.
2 : in 176 races this trend has been followed by 142 winners (81%)
2 : in 30 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 23 winners (77%)
3 : 11 of the previous 12 winners had already won a race over the same distance.
3 : in 51 races this trend has been followed by 40 winners (78%)
3 : in 7 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 3 winners (43%)
In 12 Group 3 races analysed at Haydock Park;
The winner followed all of the trends on 9 occasions (75%).
*as at June 3rd 2018

Final Declarations :

Richie’s Ratings;
Below are my ratings for all runners declared in this race. They are based on the trends as well as past performances of the horse. These are unproven and they are intended for guidance only.
1. Tabarrak 10.9268 2. Dutch Connection 9.3798 3. D’bai 8.3196

Good luck !

Result
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nn ran