Molecomb Stakes

Glorious GoodwoodDate : Wednesday 1st August 2018 at 3:00
Race : Molecomb Stakes
Type : Flat – Group 3 (2yo)
Course : Goodwood
Distance : 5f
Going : Good

Established in 1829, the race is named after a house located on the Goodwood estate that was built by the 3rd Duke of Richmond for his sister Lady Sarah Lennox.

In the last 14 runnings of this race;
3 favourites have won.
2 winners were top top rated.
10 winners were unrated.
No winners had already won a race at the same level or better.
12 winners had already won over the same distance.
2 winner had previously won at the course.
7 winners had already won on the going.
14/1 has been the highest winning SP.
10/11 has been the lowest winning SP.

Performance of the last 10 Favourites (prior to this race)
Year 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
Posn 2nd 2nd 2nd 3rd 5th 2nd 4th Won Won 5th
SP 5/2 2/1 Evens 10/11 11/4 2/1 100/30 2/1 10/11 3/1
Ran 10 9 10 8 8 10 13 12 11 11
 

There are 2 trends that I have found which are shown below with specific statistics* for Group 3 races that I have analysed…

1: 9 of the previous 12 winners had won one or both of their last 2 races.
1 : in 116 races this trend has been followed by 78 winners (67%)
1 : in 8 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 5 winners (68%)
2: 12 of the previous 14 winners had already won a race over the same distance.
2 : in 57 races this trend has been followed by 45 winners (79%)
2 : in 8 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 6 winners (75%)
In 24 Group 3 races analysed at Goodwood;
The winner followed all of the trends on 10 occasions (42%).
*as at July 31st 2018

Final Declarations :

Richie’s Ratings;
Below are my ratings for all runners declared in this race. They are based on the trends as well as past performances of the horse. These are unproven and they are intended for guidance only.
1. Vintage Brut 8.0476 2. Queen Of Bermuda 7.1071 3. Soldier’s Call 6.8810

Good luck !!

Result
1. Rumbleinthejungle 5/1
2. Life Of Riley 16/1
3. Soldier’s Call 6/4F
11 ran