Molecomb Stakes

Glorious GoodwoodDate : Wednesday 2nd August 2017 at 3:00
Race : Molecomb Stakes
Type : Flat – Group 3 (2yo)
Course : Goodwood
Distance : 5f
Going : Good to Soft

Established in 1829, the race is named after a house located on the Goodwood estate that was built by the 3rd Duke of Richmond for his sister Lady Sarah Lennox.

In the last 13 runnings of this race;
3 favourites have won.
1 winner was top top rated.
10 winners were unrated.
No winners had already won a race at the same level or better.
11 winners had already won over the same distance.
2 winner had previously won at the course.
7 winners had already won on the going.
14/1 has been the highest winning SP.
10/11 has been the lowest winning SP.

Performance of the last 10 Favourites (prior to this race)
Year 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
Posn 2nd 2nd 3rd 5th 2nd 4th Won Won 5th
4th
SP 2/1 Evens 10/11 11/4 2/1 100/30 2/1 10/11 3/1 5/2
Ran 9 10 8 8 10 13 12 11 11 16

There are 2 trends that I have found which are shown below with specific statistics* for Group 3 races that I have analysed…

1: 8 of the previous 11 winners had won one or both of their last 2 races.
1 : in 88 races this trend has been followed by 58 winners (66%)
1 : in 6 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 3 winners (50%)
2: 11 of the previous 13 winners had already won a race over the same distance.
2 : in 41 races this trend has been followed by 32 winners (78%)
2 : in 6 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 4 winners (67%)
In 16 Group 3 races analysed at Goodwood;
The winner followed all of the trends on 4 occasions (25%).
*as at July 30th 2017

Final Declarations :

Result
1. Havana Grey 7/2
2. Invincible Army 5/2F
3. To Wafij 8/1
10 ran