Nell Gwyn Stakes

Date : Wednesday 18th April 2018 at 3:35
Race : Nell Gwyn Stakes
Type : Flat – Group 3 (3yo)
Course : Newmarket
Distance : 7f
Going : Good to Soft

Established in 1961 as the Spring Fillies’ Stakes the name changed to its current title the following your. It is named after the 17th century mistress Nell Gwyn.

In the last 13 runnings of this race;
4 favourites have won.
4 top rated horses have won.
1 unrated horse has won (in 2008).
7 winners had already won over the same distance.
5 winners had previously won at the course.
8 winners had already won on the going.
28/1 has been the highest winning SP.
4/5 has been the lowest winning SP.

Performance of the last 10 Favourites (prior to this race)
Year 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
Posn 7th Won 3rd Won 2nd 11th 2nd 8th Won Won
SP 7/2 5/4 100/30 7/2 11/4 3/1 9/4 7/2 4/5 7/2
Ran 11 10 8 15 14 13 11 11 11 14

There are 2 trends that I have found which are shown below with specific statistics* for Group 3 races that I have analysed…

1: None of the previous 13 winners had raced from stalls 5-10.
1 : in 29 races this trend has been followed by 18 winners (62%)
1 : in 6 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 5 winners (83%)
2: 11 of the previous 13 winners had finished in the first 3 places last time out.
2 : in 79 races this trend has been followed by 50 winners (63%)
2 : in 31 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 18 winners (58%)
In 32 Group 3 races analysed at Newmarket (Rowley);
The winner followed all of the trends on 15 occasions (47%).
*as at April 16th 2018

Final Declarations :

Richie’s Ratings;
Below are my ratings for all runners declared in this race. They are based on the trends as well as past performances of the horse. These are unproven and they are intended for guidance only.
1. Altyn Orda 8.6987 2. Nawassi 8.2500 3. Billesden Brook 7.1769

Good luck !

Result
1.
2.
3.
nn ran