Date : Friday 12th May 2017 at 3:35
Race : Ormonde Stakes
Type : Flat – Group 3 (4yo+)
Course : Chester
Distance : 1m 5f 84y
Going : Good
Established in 1936 and named after Ormonde, an unbeaten Triple Crown winner from the late 1800’s. For a while the race was cut to 1mm 2f and restricted to 3yo’s but reverted back to the original distance and was opened to horses that are 4yo or older.
In the last 13 runnings of this race;
5 favourites have won.
6 top rated horses have won.
2 unrated horses have won.
9 winners had already won at this level or better.
3 winners had already won over the same distance.
3 winners had previously won at the course.
5 winners had already won on the going.
8/1 has been the highest winning SP.
8/13 has been the lowest winning SP.
|Performance of the last 10 Favourites (prior to this race)
There are 2 trends that I have found which are shown below with specific statistics* for Group 3 races that I have analysed…
|1: 12 of the previous 13 winners had an SP of 7/2 or lower.|
|1 : in 14 races this trend has been followed by 9 winners (64%)|
|1 : in 1 race over the distance, this trend has been followed by no winner (0%)
|2: 12 of the previous 13 winners had an SP in the top 3 of the betting.|
|2 : in 31 races this trend has been followed by 23 winners (74%)|
|2 : in 4 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 3 winners (75%)
|In 8 Group 3 races analysed at Chester;|
|The winner followed all of the trends on 7 occasions (88%).|
|*as at May 11th 2017|
Final Declarations :
|It is looking like US Army Ranger is the only horse that will go off at 7/2 or shorter but this trend has only been noted once before and in that race the horse lost. However, he knows Chester having won the Chester Vase here last year, this race is just a furlong further. Ordinarily I would not back him today, but with the winner following all trends 7 times in the 8 Grade 3 races I have noted here at Chester, I am going have a little nibble on US Army Ranger to win.
Good luck !
1. Western Hymn 7/2
2. US Army Ranger 2/1F
3. Duretto 15/2