Date : Thursday 10th May 2018 at 3:35
Race : Ormonde Stakes
Type : Flat – Group 3 (4yo+)
Course : Chester
Distance : 1m 5f 84y
Going : Good
Established in 1936 and named after Ormonde, an unbeaten Triple Crown winner from the late 1800’s. For a while the race was cut to 1mm 2f and restricted to 3yo’s but reverted back to the original distance and was opened to horses that are 4yo or older.
In the last 14 runnings of this race;
5 favourites have won.
6 top rated horses have won.
2 unrated horses have won.
10 winners had already won at this level or better.
3 winners had already won over the same distance.
3 winners had previously won at the course.
6 winners had already won on the going.
8/1 has been the highest winning SP.
8/13 has been the lowest winning SP.
|Performance of the last 10 Favourites (prior to this race)
There are 2 trends that I have found which are shown below with specific statistics* for Group 3 races that I have analysed…
|1: 13 of the previous 14 winners had an SP of 7/2 or lower.|
|1 : in 22 races this trend has been followed by 16 winners (73%)|
|1 : in 2 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 1 winner (50%)
|2: 13 of the previous 14 winners had an SP in the top 3 of the betting.|
|2 : in 48 races this trend has been followed by 36 winners (75%)|
|2 : in 2 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 1 winner (50%)
|In 10 Group 3 races analysed at Chester;|
|The winner followed all of the trends on 9 occasions (90%).|
|*as at May 9th 2018|
Final Declarations :
|Below are my ratings for all runners declared in this race. They are based on the trends as well as past performances of the horse. These are unproven and they are intended for guidance only.|
|1. Muntahaa 8.8372||2. Duretto 8.1442||3. Danehill Kodiac 6.8474|
Good luck !!
1. Idaho 8/11F
2. Danehill Kodiac 6/1
3. Elidor 18/1