Date : Saturday 8th September 2018 at 2:05
Race : September Stakes
Type : Flat – Group 3 (3yo+)
Course : Kempton
Distance : 1m 3f 219y
Going : Standard
Established in 1979 and originally run on turf but was switched to Kempton’s all-weather track in 2006. In 1982 it was promoted from Listed to Group 3 status.
In the last 12 runnings of this race;
4 favourites have won.
5 winners were the top rated horse.
7 winners had already won a race at the same level.
9 winners had already won over the same distance.
5 winners had previously won at the course.
8 winners had already won on the going.
16/1 has been the highest winning SP.
1/5 has been the lowest winning SP.
|Performance of the last 10 Favourites (prior to this race)
|1 the other joint favourite was 6th
There are 2 trends that I have found which are shown below with specific statistics* for Group 3 races that I have analysed…
|1 : All of the previous 12 winners had an Official Rating of 104 or higher.|
|1 : in 193 races this trend has been followed by 156 winners (79%)
|1 : in 23 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 19 winners (83%)|
|2 : 10 of the previous 12 winners had an Official Rating within 7lbs of the top rated horse.|
|2 : in 20 races this trend has been followed by 14 winners (70%)|
|2 : in 2 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 2 winners (100%)
|In 3 Group 3 races analysed at Kempton Park;|
|The winner followed all of the trends on 2 occasions (67%).|
|*as at September 2nd 2018|
Final Declarations :
|Below are my ratings for all runners declared in this race. They are based on the trends as well as past performances of the horse. These are unproven and they are intended for guidance only.|
|1. Enable 8.1655||2. Crystal Ocean 7.0052||3. Weekender 6.0839|
Good luck !
1. Enable 8/15F
2. Crystal Ocean 6/4
3. Cribbs Causeway 66/1