Date : Thursday 16th August 2018 at 4:10
Race : Sovereign Stakes
Type : Flat – Group 3 (3yo+ Colts + Geldings)
Course : Salisbury
Distance : 1m
Going : Good to Firm
Established in 2000 at Listed level, the race was upgraded to Group 3 status in 2004.
In the last 14 runnings of this race;
5 favourites have won.
12 winners had a SP in the top 3 of the betting.
3 winners were the top rated horse.
1 winner had already won a race at the same level.
12 winners had already won over the same distance.
1 winner had previously won at the course.
9 winners had already won on the going.
25/1 has been the highest winning SP.
11/10 has been the lowest winning SP.
|Performance of the last 10 Favourites (prior to this race)
|1 the other Joint Favourite was 5th
There are 3 trends that I have found which are shown below with specific statistics* for Group 3 races that I have analysed…
|1 : All of the previous 14 winners had an Official Rating of 105 or higher.|
|1 : in 186 races this trend has been followed by 150 winners (81%)|
|1 : in 19 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 15 winners (79%)|
|2 : 12 of the previous 14 winners had finished in the first 4 places last time out.|
|2 : in 118 races this trend has been followed by 80 winners (68%)|
|2 : in 8 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 5 winners (63%)|
|3 : All of the previous 12 winners had already won a race over the same distance.|
|3 : in 59 races this trend has been followed by 46 winners (78%)|
|3 : in 3 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 3 winners (100%)|
|In 6 Group 3 races analysed at Salisbury;|
|The winner followed all of the trends on 1 occasion (17%).|
|*as at August 6th 2018|
Final Declarations :
|Below are my ratings for all runners declared in this race. They are based on the trends as well as past performances of the horse. These are unproven and they are intended for guidance only.|
|1. Tba x.xxxx||2. Tba x.xxxx||3. Tba x.xxxx|
Good luck !