Date : Saturday 24th February 2018 at 3:15
Race : The Winter Derby
Type : Jumps – Grade 3 (4yo+)
Course : Lingfield Park
Distance : 1m 2f
Going : All Weather
Established in 1998, the race was promoted to Listed level in 1999 and then up to Grade 3 status in 2006.
In the last 14 runnings of this race;
5 favourites have won, 1 was a joint favourite.
1 top rated horse has won.
1 unrated horse has won (in 2004).
1 winner had already won at the same level or better.
9 winners had already won over the same distance.
8 winners had previously won at the course.
13 winners had already won on the going.
14/1 has been the highest winning SP.
11/8 has been the lowest winning SP.
|Performance of the last 10 Favourites (prior to this race)
|1 The other joint favourite was 10th
There are 2 trends that I have found which are shown below with specific statistics* for Group 3 races that I have analysed…
|1 : 12 of the previous 13 winners had an Official Rating in the of 103 or higher.|
|1 : in 162 races this trend has been followed by 129 winners (80%)|
|1 : in 19 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 13 winners (68%)|
|2 : All of the previous 13 winners had won a race on an all weather surface.
|2 : in 13 races this trend has been followed by 9 winners (69%)|
|2 : in 1 race over the distance, this trend has been followed by 1 winner (100%)|
|In 5 Group 3 races analysed at Lingfield Park;|
|The winner followed all of the trends on 0 occasions (0%).|
|*as at February 19th 2018|
Final Declarations :
|The recent results suggest that being drawn in the higher half of the draw gives a better chance with 7 of the last 9 winners coming from that half. As much as I would love to back Convey who is unbeaten at Lingfield, the draw statistic is enough to put me off. Clear Skies has a good record on all weather but only at Dundalk. I fancy a surpise this year and am siding with Petite Jack, a Lingfield and all weather specialist. who won a Listed race in December here and then was not far behind giving weight all round in his previous race, also here at this course. Will 3lbs be enough to overcome the winner that day Utmost ? I think so.|
|My Bet: Petite Jack 1pt e/w||5th|
Good luck !
1. Mr Owen 8/1
2. Master The World 16/1
3. Battle of Marathon 33/1