Bet365 Handicap

NewmarketDate : Thursday 12th July 2018 at 3:00
Race : Bet365 Handicap
Type : Flat – Class 2 Heritage Handicap
Course : Newmarket
Distance : 6f (July course)
Going : Good to Firm

In the last 14 runnings of this race;
No favourites have won.
4 winners had already won a Class 2 handicap race.
4 winners had already won a Class 2 handicap race in the same season.
1 winner was ridden by a claiming jockey.
No winners were the top rated horse has won.
11 winners raced from the top (high) half of the stalls draw (79%).
3 winners raced from the bottom (low) half of the stalls draw (21%).
9 winners had finished in the first 5 places in their previous race (64%).
11 winners had already won over the same distance.
2 winner had previously won at the course.
5 winners had already won on the going.
33/1 has been the highest winning SP (twice).
13/2 has been the lowest winning SP.

Performance of the last 10 Favourites (prior to this race)
Year 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
Posn 13th 6th 4th 3rd 2nd 6th 8th 8th 8th 7th
SP 11/2 11/2 13/2 13/2j1 16/1 4/1 6/1 15/2 11/2 7/1
Ran 19 20 17 15 18 16 18 20 19 20
1 the other Joint Favourite was 15th.

There are 3 trends that I have found which are shown below with specific statistics* for Class 2 Heritage Handicap races that I have analysed…

1 : 10 of the previous 13 winners had raced from stall 10 or higher.
1 : in 41 races this trend has been followed by 23 winners (56%)
1 : in 4 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 2 winners (50%)
2 : 13 of the previous 14 winners had an Official Rating in the range 84-96.
2 : in 115 races this trend has been followed by 79 winners (69%)
2 : in 26 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 21 winners (81%)
3 : 11 of the previous 14 winners had an Official Rating at least 8lbs lower than the top rated horse.
3 : in 18 races this trend has been followed by 11 winners (61%)
3 : in 2 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 1 winner (50%)
In 5 Class 2 Heritage Handicap races analysed at Newmarket on the July course;
The winner followed all of the trends on 2 occasions (40%).
*as at July 9th 2018

Final Declarations :

Richie’s Ratings;
Below are my ratings for all runners declared in this race. They are based on the trends as well as past performances of the horse. These are unproven and they are intended for guidance only.
1. Buridan 8.6667 1. Embour 8.6667 3. Tribal Quest 8.2929

Good luck !

Result
1. Foxtrot Lady 8/1
2. Stormbringer 12/1
3. Roundhay Park 33/1
4. Buridan 7/1
20 ran