Date : Saturday 14th October 2017 at 3:40
Race : The Cesarewitch
Type : Flat – Class 2 Heritage Handicap (3yo+)
Course : Newmarket
Distance : 2m 2f
Going : Good
Established in 1839, the same year as the Cambridgeshire – the two races that form what is referred to as the “Autumn Double”.
In the last 13 runnings of this race;
2 favourites have won.
8 winners had already won a Class 2 handicap race.
4 winners had already won a Class 2 handicap race in the same season.
2 winners were ridden by a claiming jockey.
1 winner was the top rated horse.
5 winners raced from the top (high) half of the stalls draw (38%).
8 winners raced from the bottom (low) half of the stalls draw (62%).
10 winners had finished in the first 5 places in their previous race (77%).
4 winners had already won over the same distance.
2 winner had previously won at the course.
11 winners had already won on the going.
66/1 has been the highest winning SP.
9/2 has been the lowest winning SP.
|Performance of the last 10 Favourites (prior to this race)
|2 the other Joint Favourites was 23rd 1 the other Joint Favourites was 24th
There are 3 trends that I have found which are shown below with specific statistics* for Class 2 Heritage Handicap races that I have analysed…
|1 : 9 of the previous 11 winners had an Official Rating in the range 87-98.|
|1 : in 104 races this trend has been followed by 71 winners (68%)|
|1 : in 3 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 2 winners (67%)|
|2: 9 of the previous 10 winners had an Official (Flat) Rating in the range 82-88 as their highest win going into this race.|
|2 : in 12 races this trend has been followed by 8 winners (67%)|
|2 : in 3 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 1 winner (33%)|
|3: 11 of the previous 13 winners had already won a race on the same going.|
|3 : in 9 races this trend has been followed by 7 winners (78%)|
|3 : in 3 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 3 winners (100%)|
|In 10 Class 2 Heritage Handicap races analysed at Newmarket;|
|The winner followed all of the trends on 4 occasions (40%).|
|*as at October 10th 2017|
Final Declarations :
Good luck !
1. Withhold 5/1F
2. London Prize 16/1
3. Lagostovegas 10/1
4. Dubawi Fifty 14/1
5. Getback In Paris 66/1
6. Swap Fox 14/1