The Cesarewitch

NewmarketDate : Saturday 14th October 2017 at 3:40
Race : The Cesarewitch
Type : Flat – Class 2 Heritage Handicap (3yo+)
Course : Newmarket
Distance : 2m 2f
Going : Good

Established in 1839, the same year as the Cambridgeshire – the two races that form what is referred to as the “Autumn Double”.

In the last 13 runnings of this race;
2 favourites have won.
8 winners had already won a Class 2 handicap race.
4 winners had already won a Class 2 handicap race in the same season.
2 winners were ridden by a claiming jockey.
1 winner was the top rated horse.
5 winners raced from the top (high) half of the stalls draw (38%).
8 winners raced from the bottom (low) half of the stalls draw (62%).
10 winners had finished in the first 5 places in their previous race (77%).
4 winners had already won over the same distance.
2 winner had previously won at the course.
11 winners had already won on the going.
66/1 has been the highest winning SP.
9/2 has been the lowest winning SP.

Performance of the last 10 Favourites (prior to this race)
Year 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006
Posn 17th 15th 3rd 8th 2nd 18th 22nd Won 4th
3rd Won
SP 13/2J2 13/2 5/1 7/1 7/1 6/1 15/2 9/2 7/2 6/1J1 9/2
Ran 33 34 33 33 34 33 32 32 32 33 31
2 the other Joint Favourites was 23rd 1 the other Joint Favourites was 24th

There are 3 trends that I have found which are shown below with specific statistics* for Class 2 Heritage Handicap races that I have analysed…

1 : 9 of the previous 11 winners had an Official Rating in the range 87-98.
1 : in 104 races this trend has been followed by 71 winners (68%)
1 : in 3 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 2 winners (67%)
2: 9 of the previous 10 winners had an Official (Flat) Rating in the range 82-88 as their highest win going into this race.
2 : in 12 races this trend has been followed by 8 winners (67%)
2 : in 3 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 1 winner (33%)
3: 11 of the previous 13 winners had already won a race on the same going.
3 : in 9 races this trend has been followed by 7 winners (78%)
3 : in 3 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 3 winners (100%)
In 10 Class 2 Heritage Handicap races analysed at Newmarket;
The winner followed all of the trends on 4 occasions (40%).
*as at October 10th 2017

Final Declarations :

Good luck !

Result
1. Withhold 5/1F
2. London Prize 16/1
3. Lagostovegas 10/1
4. Dubawi Fifty 14/1
5. Getback In Paris 66/1
6. Swap Fox 14/1
34 ran