Chester Cup

Date : Friday 11th May 2018 at 3:35
Race : Chester Cup
Type : Flat – Class 2 Heritage Handicap (4yo+)
Course : Chester
Distance : 2m 2f 140y
Going : Good

Established in 1824 it was originally a limited handicap and called the Tradesmen’s Plate. In 1874 it was renamed to the Chester Trades’ Cup and then in 1884 to the Chester Cup.

In the last 24 runnings of this race;
3 favourites have won.
1 top rated horse has won.
14 winners had already won a Class 2 handicap race.
No winners were ridden by a claiming jockey.
8 winners raced from the top (high) half of the stalls draw (33%).
16 winners raced from the bottom (low) half of the stalls draw (67%).
13 winners had finished in the first 5 places in their previous race (54%).
4 winners had already won over the same distance.
5 winners had previously won at the course.
14 winners had already won on the going.
33/1 has been the highest winning SP.
2/1 has been the lowest winning SP.

Performance of the last 10 Favourites (prior to this race)
Year 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
Posn 12th 12th 2nd 4th 5th 3rd 12th Won 7th 5th
SP 4/1 7/2 4/1 4/1 7/2J1 11/2C2 5/1 7/1 9/2 7/2
Ran 17 17 17 17 17 16 17 17 16 17
1 the other Joint Favourite was 7th. 2 the other Co Favourites were 5th + 11th

There are 3 trends that I have found which are shown below with specific statistics* for Class 2 Heritage Handicap races that I have analysed…

1: 12 of the previous 13 winners carried a weight in the range 8st9lbs – 9st6lbs.
1 : in 2 race over the distance, this trend has been followed by 2 winners (100%)
1 : in 1 race over the distance, this trend has been followed by 0 winners (0%)
2: None of the previous 15 winners had raced from stalls 6-10.
2 : in 36 races this trend has been followed by 21 winners (58%)
2 : in 3 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 3 winners (100%)
3: All of the previous 11 winners had an Official Rating in the range 93-99.
3 : in 108 races this trend has been followed by 75 winners (69%)
3 : in 4 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 4 winners (100%)
In 3 Heritage Handicap races analysed at Chester;
The winner followed all of the trends on 2 occasions (6%).
*as at May 7th 2018

Final Declarations :

Richie’s Ratings;
Below are my ratings for all runners declared in this race. They are based on the trends as well as past performances of the horse. These are unproven and they are intended for guidance only.
1. My Reward 6.2061 2. Nakeeta 5.7489 3. Grandee 5.5667

Good luck !

Result
1. Magic Circle 8/1
2. Fun Mac 15/2
3. Who Dares Wins 9/1
4. Dubawi Fifty 6/1
16 ran