Date : Saturday 3rd June 2017 at 3:45
Race : Epsom “Dash”
Type : Flat – Heritage Class 2 Handicap (3yo+)
Course : Epsom Downs
Distance : 5f
Going : Good
Know as “the dash” because it is the fastest 5f furlong sprint in Europe, possible the world, due to it being downhill all the way.
In the last 13 runnings of this race;
1 favourite has won.
9 winners had already won a Class 2 handicap race.
1 winner had already won a Class 2 handicap race in the same season.
1 winner was ridden by a claiming jockey.
1 winner was the top rated horse.
8 winners raced from the top (high) half of the stalls draw (62%).
5 winners raced from the bottom (low) half of the stalls draw (38%).
11 winners had finished in the first 5 places in their previous race (85%).
13 winners had already won over the same distance.
2 winners had previously won at the course.
12 winners had already won on the going.
50/1 has been the highest winning SP.
5/1 has been the lowest winning SP.
|Performance of the last 10 Favourites (prior to this race)
|1 the other Joint Favourite was 14th. 2 the other Joint Favourite was 19th. 3 the other Joint Favourite was 7th
There are 3 trends that I have found which are shown below with specific statistics* for Heritage Handicap races that I have analysed…
|1: 11 of the previous 13 winners raced from stalls 8-19.|
|1 : in 27 races this trend has been followed by 14 winners (52%)|
|1 : in 4 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 2 winners (50%)
|2: 12 of the previous 13 winners had finished in the first 6 places last time out.|
|2 : in 17 races this trend has been followed by 12 winners (71%)|
|2 : in 4 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 2 winners (50%)
|3: 12 of the previous 13 winners had already won a race on the same going.|
|3 : in 6 races this trend has been followed by 5 winners (83%)|
|3 : in 2 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 2 winners (100%)
|In 2 Heritage Handicap races analysed at Epsom Downs;|
|No winners have followed all of the trends (0%).|
|*as at June 1st 2017|
Final Declarations :
|There are 6 horses that follow all the trends and from that six I have shortlisted Bowson Fred and Edward Lewis. I am going for the former. He was beaten by the “in form” Kimerella by just one length on the all weather at Lingfield in March, receiving 6lbs that day. In this race he gets another 3lbs and if he sticks close to Kimberella (2nd in this race last year) I am hoping the weight difference will be enough to make up the one length and get his nose across the finishing line first. I will have a small each way bet at around 16/1 and hopefully be smiling after the race.
Good luck !
1. Caspian Prince 25/1
2. Dark Shot 10/1
3. Duke Of Firenze 9/1
4. A Momentofmadness 8/1