The Lincoln

LincolnDate : Saturday 24th March 2018 at 3:35
Race : Lincoln (Heritage Handicap)
Type : Flat – Class 2 Handicap (4yo+)
Course : Doncaster
Distance : 1m (straight)
Going : Soft

 

As the first leg of the Spring Double, the running of the Lincoln tells us that another flat racing season has started. The Grand National is the second leg and for the old fashioned amongst us, tends to signify the end of the jumps season.

This is a race which is rich in history having started off as a 1½ mile handicap at Lincoln racecourse in 1853 and then being switched to a mile in 1855. The race was run at Lincoln race course until 1965 when it was switched to the current venue of Doncaster.

In the last 23 runnings of this race;
6 favourites have won, 1 was joint favourite.
1 top rated horse has won.
12 winners had already won a Class 2 handicap race.
2 winners were ridden by a claiming jockey.
11 winners raced from the top (high) half of the stalls draw (48%).
12 winners raced from the bottom (low) half of the stalls draw (52%).
12 winners had finished in the first 5 places in their previous race (55%).
18 winners had already won over the same distance.
3 winners had previously won at the course.
10 winners had already won on the going.
33/1 has been the highest winning SP.
3/1 has been the lowest winning SP.

Performance of the last 10 Favourites (prior to this race)
Year 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
Posn 2nd 18th 10th 2nd 17th 5th 10th Won Won 7th
SP 7/2 11/2 6/1 7/1J1 13/2 11/2 6/1 3/1 100/30 6/1
Ran 22 22 22 17 22 22 21 21 20 21
1 the other joint favourite was 5th.

There are 3 trends that I have found which are shown below with specific statistics* for Heritage Handicap races that I have analysed…

1: 19 of the previous 20 winners had an Official Rating in the range 90-107.
1 : in 107 races this trend has been followed by 74 winners (69%)
1 : in 19 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 13 winners (68%)
2: 20 of the previous 21 winners had an Official Rating 5-18lbs lower than the top rated horse.
2 : in 15 races this trend has been followed by 8 winners (53%)
2 : in 6 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 4 winners (67%)
3: 14 of the previous 15 winners had already won a race with an Official Rating of 86 or higher.
3 : in 13 races this trend has been followed by 8 winners (62%)
3 : in 3 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 2 winners (67%)
In 8 Heritage Handicap races analysed at Doncaster;
The winner followed all of the trends on 3 occasions (38%).
*as at March 20th 2018

Final Declarations :

Good luck !

Result
1. Addeybb 5/1
2. Lord Glitters 9/2F
3. Mitchum Swagger 12/1
4. Gabrial 20/1
20 ran