Date : Saturday 1st July 2017 at 3:30
Race : Northumberland Plate
Type : Flat – Class 2 Heritage Handicap (3yo+)
Course : Newcastle
Distance : 2m 56y
Going : Standard
First run in 1833 on Town Moor, the race was originally intended as a celebration for mine workers and is known as the Pitmen’s Derby. Switched to Gosforth Park in 1882 the meeting was switched from being run on a Wednesday to a Saturday in 1952. 2016 is the first year that this race took place on the all weather surface.
In the last 13 runnings of this race;
3 favourites have won.
5 winners had already won a Class 2 handicap race.
3 winners had already won a Class 2 handicap race in the same season.
4 winners were ridden by a claiming jockey.
1 winner was the top rated horse.
7 winners raced from the top (high) half of the stalls draw (54%).
6 winners raced from the bottom (low) half of the stalls draw (46%).
12 winners had finished in the first 5 places in their previous race (92%).
9 winners had already won over the same distance.
2 winners had previously won at the course.
9 winners had already won on the going.
33/1 has been the highest winning SP.
5/2 has been the lowest winning SP.
|Performance of the last 10 Favourites (prior to this race)
|1 the other Joint Favourite was 17th
There are 2 trends that I have found which are shown below with specific statistics* for Heritage Handicap races that I have analysed…
|1: All of the previous 8 winners had an Official Rating in the range 90-104.|
|1 : in 93 races this trend has been followed by 65 winners (70%)|
|1 : in 3 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 2 winners (67%)
|2: All of the previous 13 winners had finished in the first 5 places last time out.|
|2 : in 20 races this trend has been followed by 13 winners (65%)|
|2 : in 3 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 3 winners (100%)
|In 2 Heritage Handicap races analysed at Newcastle;|
|1 winner has followed all of the trends (50%).|
|*as at June 27th 2017|
Final Declarations :
Good luck !!
1. Higher Power 11/2
2. Natural Scenery 7/1
3. Flymetothestars 11/4F
4. Lord George 17/2