Northumberland Plate

Date : Saturday 30th June 2018 at 2:05
Race : Northumberland Plate
Type : Flat – Class 2 Heritage Handicap (3yo+)
Course : Newcastle
Distance : 2m 56y
Going : Standard

First run in 1833 on Town Moor, the race was originally intended as a celebration for mine workers and is known as the Pitmen’s Derby. Switched to Gosforth Park in 1882 the meeting was switched from being run on a Wednesday to a Saturday in 1952. 2016 is the first year that this race took place on the all weather surface.

In the last 14 runnings of this race;
3 favourites have won.
6 winners had already won a Class 2 handicap race.
3 winners had already won a Class 2 handicap race in the same season.
4 winners were ridden by a claiming jockey.
1 winner was the top rated horse.
8 winners raced from the top (high) half of the stalls draw (57%).
6 winners raced from the bottom (low) half of the stalls draw (43%).
13 winners had finished in the first 5 places in their previous race (93%).
10 winners had already won over the same distance.
2 winners had previously won at the course.
10 winners had already won on the going.
33/1 has been the highest winning SP.
5/2 has been the lowest winning SP.

Performance of the last 10 Favourites (prior to this race)
Year 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
Posn 3rd 2nd 6th Won 3rd Won 15th 5th 7th 18th
SP 11/4 13/2 5/1 4/1 15/2J1 5/2 6/1 3/1 13/2 4/1
Ran 20 20 19 19 18 16 19 19 17 18
1 the other Joint Favourite was 17th

There are 2 trends that I have found which are shown below with specific statistics* for Class 2 Heritage Handicap races that I have analysed…

1: 8 of the previous 9 winners had an Official Rating in the range 90-104.
1 : in 113 races this trend has been followed by 77 winners (68%)
1 : in 4 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 2 winners (50%)
2: All of the previous 13 winners had finished in the first 5 places last time out.
2 : in 26 races this trend has been followed by 18 winners (69%)
2 : in 4 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 4 winners (100%)
In 3 Heritage Handicap races analysed at Newcastle;
1 winner has followed all of the trends (33%).
*as at June 26th 2018

Final Declarations :

Richie’s Ratings;
Below are my ratings for all runners declared in this race. They are based on the trends as well as past performances of the horse. These are unproven and they are intended for guidance only.
1. Higher Power 8.5789 2. Lord George 7.7857 3. Arch Villain 7.6845

Good luck !!

Result
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