Scottish Sprint Cup

Date : Saturday 9th June 2018 at 2:30
Race : Scottish Sprint Cup
Type : Flat – Class 2 Heritage Handicap (4yo+)
Course : Musselburgh
Distance : 5f
Going : Good to Firm

One of the highlights of the Scottish flat racing season, this race has a guaranteed £100,000 in prize money which attracts trainers and their high level handicap sprinters in the North.

In the last 14 runnings of this race;
3 favourites have won, 1 was a joint favourite.
10 winners had already won a Class 2 handicap race.
4 winners had already won a Class 2 handicap race in the same season.
6 winners were ridden by a claiming jockey.
2 winners were the top rated horse.
9 winners raced from the top (high) half of the stalls draw (64%).
5 winners raced from the bottom (low) half of the stalls draw (36%).
9 winners had finished in the first 5 places in their previous race (64%).
13 winners had already won over the same distance.
3 winners had previously won at the course.
12 winners had already won on the going.
50/1 has been the highest winning SP.
11/4 has been the lowest winning SP.

Performance of the last 10 Favourites (prior to this race)
Year 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
Posn 11th 4th Won 4th Won 4th 4th 5th 9th 14th
SP 11/2 3/1 4/1 4/1 6/1J1 4/1 11/4 7/2 6/1J2 13/2
Ran 17 17 17 17 17 16 16 15 15 18
1 the other JF was 4th 2 the other JF was 10th

There are 3 trends that I have found which are shown below with specific statistics* for Class 2 Heritage Handicap races that I have analysed…

1: 11 of the previous 12 winners were aged 4yo-6yo.
1 : in 53 races this trend has been followed by 41 winners (77%)
1 : in 4 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 3 winners (75%)
2: 9 of the previous 10 winners had an Official Rating in the range 93-104.
2 : in 110 races this trend has been followed by 75 winners (68%)
2 : in 6 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 5 winners (83%)
3: 9 of the previous 10 winners had already won a race on the same going.
3 : in 11 races this trend has been followed by 8 winners (73%)
3 : in 5 races over the distance, this trend has been followed by 4 winners (80%)
In 4 Class 2 Heritage Handicap races analysed at Musselburgh;
1 winner has followed all of the trends (25%).
*as at June 3rd 2018

Final Declarations :

Richie’s Ratings;
Below are my ratings for all runners declared in this race. They are based on the trends as well as past performances of the horse. These are unproven and they are intended for guidance only.
1. El Astronaute 9.6031 2. Soie D’Leau 9.0128 3. Move In Time 8.6732

Good luck !!

Result
1. Caspian Prince 16/1
2. Major Jumbo 6/1
3. El Astronaute 9/2F
4. Move In Time 8/1
16 ran