Statistics

This page is now no longer updated as the relevant statistics are added to each individual race page.

9 thoughts on “Statistics

  1. Matt Stamford

    Hi Rich. I’ve been following you now for about 4 wks.
    Really think your doing a great job with the trends.
    I always did the trends for the Grand National which got me googling trends for other races thus finding your site.
    Just missed out on Brave Anna as was ferrying the kids around. Never mind I’ve had a great run recently thanks to you.
    Keep up the good work. Matt

    Reply
    1. Richie Post author

      Hi Matt, thanks for your comment I hope you are finding the site useful. It’s hard work but I have a nice return from time to time. I would like to say that I picked Brave Anna but unfortunately I missed out too. Hopefully another big priced one will come along soon and we both back it. Good luck !!

      Reply
  2. Jules

    OK Richie I been following for a couple of weeks its an incredible job you do,so if i got this straight you go through every race from the sheets above no matter how many runners? WOW!,where if i may ask do you get all the back dated info? I would love to learn a lot more from you.where would i start? keep up your excellent work Regards Jules

    Reply
    1. Richie Post author

      Hi Jules, to keep things simple I use the Racing Post website and record the stats using Excel spreadsheets. Once the base data is there it is then just a case of adding the race details for the next instance of a race, i.e. each year. Another source of information is Wikipedia which will give you previous winners for all of the top races, then use RP to investigate further.

      I hope this helps.
      Cheers
      Richie

      Reply
  3. Craig Harry

    Hi Richie. First up great work. Stumbled across your site when looking at the firm for Aintree. You’re very generous with your work. One question. Do you use likelihood ratios to calculate value odds from the significant trends you identify? Just an idea maybe to explore? Cheers. Craig

    Reply
    1. Richie Post author

      Hi Craig,

      In short, no, I try to keep things simple and form a basis upon which readers can then add their own assessments, ratios rating etc. I am currently playing with a simplistic rating algorhythm which is based purely on trends that I have found for a race and other more established trends like “has the horse won at the course, over the distance, on the going etc”. I had a reasonable amount of success at Cheltenham this year, but I did not share my ratings data and therefore it is not proven. I will share for the Aintree festival, just to get some kind of idea on whether Cheltenham was just luck, or whether there might be a bit more to it than that. I am familiar with the concept of “value”, but I have never really delved in to it in detail and tried to combine it with things like trends.

      Good luck.
      Richie

      Reply
  4. Craig Harry

    I understand absolutely. If you have the data on a spreadsheet (you’d have to have the number runners) the LR could be programmed in as a formula. Have you thought about importing data into an ACCESS database. Sorry to fire questions at you. Craig

    Reply
    1. Richie Post author

      Hi Craig, apologies for the delayed response but these festivals take up a lot of my time and that the is factor that (at the moment) is my biggest enemy. I have in the region of 200 spreadsheets for each race that I analyse, i.e. Group races on the flat plus Class 2 Heritage handicaps along with Grade racing over the jumps. Bringing this into a central platform e.g. ACCESS will take time and also needs to be verified so that no data is lost during transition. This all started as just an idea and a bit of fun but has turned into (almost) a second full time job albeit unpaid as I make no money from this, except on my own bets when successful. I suppose I am my own worst enemy as I recently got my spreadsheets for Flat and Jumps into the format I had been trying for and then decided to look at ratings, primarily based on the trends. I am hoping that they will prove to be a good guide and am very much looking forward to this year’s Flat racing, as the ratings threw up the first 2 home in the Lincoln as the top 2 rated horses. The highlight of the recent Cheltenham festival, was Kilbricken Storm winning at 33/1 but as I did not give out this information in advance, people can only take me at my word until I prove my ratings. So far after 2 days at the Aintree festival, I have not found many winners, but the trends have. The idea is that when the trends highlight a large number of candidates then the ratings can help narrow the list down and be reasonably successful. Only then will I feel that I have succeeded.

      On Day 1, the trends highlighted the following winners: Finian’s Oscar (top rated) 5/2, Might Bite (top rated) 4/5, We Have a Dream (2nd rated) 2/1, Getaway Katie Mai 15/8 and Bentelimar 10/1 (neither rated in top 3).
      On Day 2, the trends highlighted the following winners: Lalor 14/1 (3rd rated), Santini 6/4 (not rated in top 3), Terrefort 3/1 (not rated in top 3) and Ultragold 14/1 (not rated in top 3).

      Hopefully Day 3 will be a little better, but I have to be careful not to try and allow the ratings to be amended to just fit in with the winners, but to remain an independent barometer in order to compliment the trends.

      Good luck today, I will be backing Debeche, The Worlds End and Blaklion in each way doubles and a treble.

      Reply
  5. Craig Harry

    I completely understand Richie and there’s certainly no need to apologies – it’s good enough of you to put up with my ramblings -:)

    I guess the simplest value can be found by dutching all on trend horses when the return is greater than the percentage winners you’ve found for that grade of race. The 2.25 in around 25 minutes is one. Dutching Black Op & On The Blind Side returns 40% when your stats say it should be 33%. Simples.

    Incidentally I dipped my toe in yesterday believe it or not with Politique e/w – the price was just too good and it ticked all the boxes so thanks very much.

    Onwards & upwards

    Reply

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